The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) subsequently issued reports on global trade in the second half of 2023. While the global supply chain is gradually returning to normal, the shortages and delays in non-essential consumer goods have improved, and the volume and value of global commodity trade has also rebounded in the first quarter, global trade growth is expected to slow in the second quarter, and the trade outlook for the next half is not optimistic. The WTO predicts that global commodity trade will grow by 1.7% in 2023, much below the average of 2.6% in the past 12 years.

In view of the factors that could pose risks to global trade and supply chains in the second half of the year, the above-mentioned international agencies have jointly mentioned global economic slowdown, inflation, financial market turmoil and geopolitical tensions.WTO Director-General Ivira has repeatedly stressed during his visit to the 2022 Summer Forum in Davos that the world cannot withstand all forms of “disconnection.”

Chris Rogers, Head of Global Market Intelligence Supply Chain Research, said the supply chain is almost back to normal in terms of activity, inventory and seasonality, but there is a lot of uncertainty in government policy and entity risks after enterprises start to implement long-term supply chain restructuring plans in the second half of 2023.

For the second quarter of 2023, UNCTAD predicts that global trade growth will slow, in general, the global trade outlook in the second half of 2023 is pessimistic, with negative factors outweighing positive factors.But after entering the second half, a good news comes from South Korea: On July 1, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce released data that South Korea saw a trade surplus of $11.3 billion in June, which is the first time South Korea has achieved a monthly trade surplus since February 2022.

In the field of international trade, as South Koreas trade data can be used to a certain extent as a leading indicator of the global economy, South Korea is also known as the global economys Kingbird, while its exports are also one of the major sunshine of global business and technological demand, because South Koreas products are mostly key products such as chips, monitors and finished oil.

Rogers’ team listed the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the implementation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the low water level of the Panama Canal as important factors that should be addressed in the second half of this year, especially the impact on supply chain formation.